AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, escalating after U.S. airstrikes and raising fresh fears of a global energy shock. US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with negotiations described as stuck and officials trading claims over whether any ceasefire is still meaningful. Deal Talk, Doubts Remain: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif says the U.S. and Iran have agreed the final wording of a deal to end the war and reopen Hormuz, but both sides still accuse each other of bad faith. Lebanon at the Center: A key vulnerability in any U.S.-Iran push is Lebanon, where Israel-Hezbollah fighting has displaced more than a million and the U.S. is seen as deeply implicated. Markets React: Oil prices slid on hopes of progress, while the Canadian dollar edged down as investors weighed peace-deal optimism against ongoing risk. G7 Security Tightened: France and Switzerland boosted security and restricted border crossings ahead of G7 protests, with Middle East conflict expected on the agenda. Arms Trafficking Case: A British court found a UK businessman and Greek associate guilty of brokering illegal fighter jets, missiles and grenades to warlords across Africa and the Middle East. Heritage & Tourism: Syria’s Umayyad Mosque enters a new restoration era as the country rebuilds tourism after the Assad era.

Middle East War Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with negotiations stalled and Iran saying the ceasefire is effectively meaningless; an Indian official linked a U.S. attack on an oil tanker to the deaths of three Indian mariners, underscoring risks to shipping. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The EU moved to use its freedom-of-navigation sanctions regime against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran says it targeted U.S. assets in Bahrain and Kuwait and warned the Gulf against further attacks. Global Economy Hit: The World Bank cut 2026 global growth to 2.5%, calling the Middle East conflict an energy shock that revives inflation and threatens development gains. Aviation and Energy Costs: IATA warned the oil shock is the biggest in global oil history, threatening jet fuel availability and raising costs as airlines face airspace disruptions. UK Politics and Aid: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said charities should not support illegal Israeli settlements, as sanctions and Charity Commission scrutiny expand. Qatar-China Investment: Invest Qatar and QNB hosted a Beijing investor dialogue to deepen Qatar-China cooperation, while QFZ signed MoUs to support advanced insulation manufacturing in Umm Alhoul Free Zone. Cambodia Clean Energy & Exports: Cambodia and the ADB plan to expand renewable financing via local banks, and a protocol clears dried longan exports to China.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded strikes for a second straight day, raising fears of a wider war, while an Indian official said a US attack on an oil tanker allegedly trying to breach a blockade killed three Indian mariners. Ceasefire Talks: Trump said a “settlement” is near and the Strait of Hormuz could open “as soon as” documents are signed, but Iran’s foreign ministry said no final decision has been made. Energy Shock: With Hormuz at the center of negotiations, the conflict is driving up fuel costs and squeezing economies; the World Bank cut global growth to 2.5% and warned of unequal impacts, while the IMF said euro-area growth is hit and inflation risks are rising. Markets & Inflation: US producer prices jumped for the biggest annual gain in 3½ years, and Wall Street swung sharply higher after Trump signaled deal progress. Regional Fallout: Bahrain and Kuwait reported Iranian missile and drone attacks, and experts warned strikes on Iran’s water facilities could amount to war crimes. Aviation Update: Qatar Airways will resume daily Doha–Philadelphia flights from 1 August 2026.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: Iran says it fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, while the U.S. reported intercepts and strikes as the ceasefire frays; the U.S. also weighs letting Gulf allies tap frozen Iranian assets to cover war damages. U.S.-Iran Tit-for-Tat: Fresh exchanges followed new U.S. strikes, with Iran declaring the Strait closed to all vessels even as the U.S. said transit continued. Lebanon as Dealbreaker: Reporting highlights how Lebanon’s battlefield could derail any U.S.-Iran bargain, with Beirut repeatedly pulled into the wider Iran-Israel cycle. Military Incident Near Hormuz: A U.S. Army Apache helicopter crash near the Strait saw two crew rescued; CENTCOM has not confirmed whether it was shot down or mechanical failure. Gulf Rights Under Pressure: Human Rights Watch and Amnesty say GCC states have tightened controls on expression and assembly, especially affecting migrant workers’ ability to speak out. Qatar Backs Space Intelligence: Qatar Investment Authority joins a €1bn ICEYE Series F to expand sovereign space-based monitoring. Dubai Urban Push: Emaar plans a Dh200b district for 150,000 residents with metro links and EV-friendly mobility. Aviation & Tourism Fallout: Wizz Air profits plunge as Iran-war route cancellations hit earnings; Emirates is named Best Overall Airline in the Middle East. Tech & Commerce: Visa says 91% of Egyptians use AI while shopping; ACI Worldwide powers Kwik Payments’ next phase in Africa.

U.S.-Iran Escalation: A U.S. Army Apache crashed near the Strait of Hormuz; two pilots were rescued, while Washington says Iran shot it down and Iran claims broader drone losses—raising fears of a wider Middle East spiral. Gulf Ceasefire Under Strain: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, with both sides trading strikes as the U.S. presses for a deal and considers letting Gulf allies use frozen Iranian assets for damages. Nuclear Safety Alarm: The IAEA says a drone hit the Barakah plant’s generator facility in the UAE, damaging power to Unit 3, warning attacks on nuclear infrastructure are a “no-go.” Qatar-AI Finance: Qatar’s Awqaf and Wahed MENA signed an MoU to pilot an AI platform for Sharia-compliant equity analysis. World Cup Politics & Access: FIFA chief Infantino urged people to “chill” over visa and entry problems affecting referees and media ahead of the 2026 tournament. Saudi Football Spending Scrutiny: Saudi Arabia’s $2bn star-studded spending spotlighted the World Cup push, but the national team’s results remain shaky. Bangladesh Development Boost: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB loan for economic governance support, citing Middle East conflict spillovers. Markets & Costs: Inflation rose to 3% in May in one report, with transport, rents and food linked to the war’s price shock.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. says it carried out strikes on Iran after an Apache helicopter crash near the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran vows retaliation and the two sides trade accusations amid a fragile ceasefire. Gulf Ceasefire Strain: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, intercepted early, while the U.S. weighs options to pressure Iran financially by tapping frozen assets. Regional Security & Mediation: Pakistan’s interior minister arrived in Iran for mediation as both Washington and Tehran push for a deal. Energy & Markets: The Strait of Hormuz remains a key shipping and oil chokepoint, keeping pressure on global supply chains and inflation fears. Business Continuity: Qatar’s dispute center held a seminar on force majeure and crisis-ready contracts, reflecting how firms are planning for disruption. GCC Credit Watch: S&P says GCC credit profiles are still resilient despite the Iran conflict, though corporate risk is more exposed. Aviation Connectivity: Flydubai won approval for direct Pokhara–Dubai flights from Sept. 23, boosting Nepal’s tourism and Middle East links.

Gulf Flashpoint: President Trump blamed Iran for shooting down a U.S. Army Apache near the Strait of Hormuz and said the U.S. “must respond,” after a drone boat rescued two pilots who were “safe and uninjured,” further straining efforts to turn a fragile ceasefire into a wider deal. Humanitarian Fallout: The war’s spillovers are worsening hunger and aid delivery, with the World Food Programme warning tens of millions could face severe food insecurity as costs and shipping disruptions rise. Regional Escalation: Iran said it fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait that were intercepted, while the U.S. weighs tougher economic pressure, including possible use of frozen Iranian assets. Aviation Under Pressure: Airlines worldwide are cutting flights and raising fares as jet fuel costs surge, with IATA warning 2026 profits are far lower amid Hormuz-linked supply risks. Diplomacy & Rights: Kurdish politicians and 82 Nobel laureates urged the Council of Europe to grant Abdullah Öcalan the “right to hope,” as Turkey’s implementation deadline nears. Holy Land Focus: France honored Latin Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa with the Legion of Honor, highlighting protection of Christians and the status quo in Jerusalem. Business & Energy: Saudi Arabia qualified 24 bidders for a mineral exploration licensing round, while the Hormuz shock continues to ripple through global markets and household budgets.

US-Iran Nuclear Diplomacy: The US is pushing the IAEA Board of Governors to verify Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, with a draft resolution urging renewed inspections and warning of possible UN Security Council referral. Gaza Crossings Blocked: UN chief António Guterres voiced deep concern after Israel closed Gaza crossings, saying no crossing points are open and aid is being halted from outside. Iran-Israel Truce Under Strain: Trump said the US will keep pursuing an Iran nuclear deal regardless of Israel’s stance, while Iran and Israel traded fire again before pausing; Israel also issued evacuation alerts for Lebanon’s Tyre and surrounding towns. Lebanon Escalation: Iran said it halted operations after a “painful response,” while Israeli strikes continued in the north and officials reported heavy tolls and displacement. Regional Security Talks: Pakistani and Lebanese army chiefs met to discuss security amid the Lebanon strikes, as UNIFIL reported repeated airspace violations. Trade & Economy: Türkiye and Canada began free trade agreement talks; Egypt’s fintech Blnk raised $37m to expand point-of-sale credit.

Iran-Israel Ceasefire Pause: Iran and Israel said they’ve halted direct attacks after the most direct clash since April, with Trump urging both sides to stop “shooting” and warning Netanyahu against escalation that could leave Israel “alone” against Iran. Lebanon Front Still Hot: Even as Iran and Israel step back, Hezbollah and Israel’s Lebanon campaign continue, with Israel striking Tyre and warning it will persist against Hezbollah. Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis declared a Red Sea blockade for Israeli ships, threatening attacks and escalation across the region. Gaza Aid Disrupted: Israel suspended Gaza humanitarian aid deliveries and closed crossings after Iran’s missile attack, despite claims of sufficient aid inflow. Palestinian Media Under Fire: A Palestinian journalists group recorded 55 violations against journalists in May, including arrests, obstruction, and live-fire incidents. EU Backs Egypt Maritime Security: The EU approved €20m military aid for Egypt to upgrade naval capabilities and protect Red Sea and Mediterranean routes. Arab League Diplomacy: The Arab League held preparatory talks for the June 22–23 Arab-European ministerial in Amman, focusing on shared political and economic priorities.

Iran-Israel Escalation: Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel after an Israeli strike on Beirut’s Dahieh, with sirens in multiple regions and Israel saying it intercepted the barrage; hours later, Israel struck targets across Iran including the Mahshahr petrochemical complex and said it dismantled Iranian defense systems. Lebanon Front: Israel vowed to intensify operations against Hezbollah despite US calls for restraint, while Iran warned further attacks on Lebanon would bring “crushing blows.” Yemen Red Sea Shock: Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli shipping and vowed to target Israel-affiliated vessels, adding pressure to already strained Red Sea routes. Diplomacy Under Strain: Trump urged both sides to return to negotiations and told Netanyahu not to retaliate, as Iran blamed the US for ceasefire breaches and said talks would be affected. Markets and Energy: Oil jumped toward/above $95 as the Strait of Hormuz risk returned to focus; stocks slid, the rupee weakened, and gold dipped on rate worries. Travel Warnings: India issued fresh advisories urging citizens to avoid Iran and exit immediately; Tehran also suspended flights at Mehrabad. Cyber Threats: A pro-Palestinian hacking group warned of “most devastating” cyberattacks on critical infrastructure of Israel and allies.

Iran-Gulf Escalation: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, with Bahrain saying interceptions occurred; Tehran claimed it targeted U.S. military assets after U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island, while the U.S. weighs tougher economic pressure, including letting Gulf states tap frozen Iranian assets for war damages. Israel-Iran Missile Exchange: Israel said it intercepted missiles launched from Iran after a Beirut strike, as air raid sirens sounded and regional airspace closures spread; Trump urged Iran to return to talks and told Netanyahu not to strike back, while Iran warned of “crushing” responses if attacks on Lebanon continue. Lebanon Under Strikes: Despite a ceasefire, Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern towns, killing at least 11 and wounding 15, with Israel citing Hezbollah activity. West Bank Crackdown: Israeli forces arrested several Palestinians in the West Bank, including farmers in Beit Anan, amid renewed restrictions on land access. Egypt-Gulf Diplomacy & Projects: Egypt’s PM inaugurated a new Coca-Cola HBC production line in Alexandria and reviewed Alexandria Metro progress; Egypt and Qatar’s FMs discussed Iran crisis and Gaza implementation steps. Regional Mediation: Türkiye said it is ready to support Hormuz mine-clearing if asked, and Pakistan’s interior minister arrived in Iran for mediation.

US-Iran Gulf escalation: CENTCOM says it shot down two Iranian one-way drones over the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats to maritime traffic, after earlier strikes on Iranian coastal radar sites; Gulf backlash: Iran’s missiles hit Bahrain and Kuwait, with Bahrain and Kuwait condemning “aggression” and warning of escalation; Ceasefire pressure: talks appear stalled as Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi travels to Tehran with a “special letter” for Iran’s supreme leader; US policy shift: Washington is considering redirecting frozen Iranian assets to fund Gulf reconstruction and repairs for past and future damage, a move that could further strain the fragile truce; Israel-Palestine violence: Israeli forces killed a seven-month-old Palestinian baby near Hebron and wounded his parents, while separate shootings near the West Bank left at least one dead and several injured; Gaza ceasefire talks: Hamas began meetings in Cairo with Palestinian factions and mediators to implement a Gaza ceasefire and discuss next-phase arrangements; Security spotlight: the Pentagon reportedly raised its counterintelligence threat level for Israel to “critical,” citing concerns about spying on senior US officials.

Gulf Escalation: The US struck Iranian coastal radar sites after intercepting drones aimed at the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran said it retaliated with missiles against US-linked bases in Kuwait and Bahrain; Bahrain and Kuwait reported interceptions and air-traffic disruptions, while Gulf states condemned Tehran’s “aggression.” Lebanon Front: Israel’s strikes in southern Lebanon killed Lebanese Army personnel, drawing Jordan’s condemnation and raising pressure on a fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. West Bank Violence: In Hebron, a seven-month-old baby was killed and parents wounded after Israeli gunfire at a vehicle, while reports also surfaced of assaults on Palestinians by soldiers and settlers. Gaza Toll: Gaza health authorities said deaths from the Israeli aggression rose to 72,961 martyrs, with continued strikes including a drone attack on a displaced camp. US-Iran Talks, Sports Diplomacy: Iran accused the US of “vindictive” visa denials for World Cup staff, while the US denied visas to some Iranian officials; Iran’s team still departed for Mexico amid the wider war-related standoff. US Security Concerns: US media reported the Pentagon raised Israel’s espionage threat level to “critical,” alleging intensified monitoring of senior US officials tied to Iran negotiations. Regional Politics: Ireland banned entry for Israeli ministers and urged EU pressure on Israel, while the Union of Arab Banks honored Qatar’s finance minister with a leadership award.

US-Iran Escalation in the Gulf: CENTCOM says it shot down four Iranian one-way drones toward the Strait of Hormuz and then struck Iranian coastal radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island, as Iran retaliated with seven ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain (six intercepted, one missed), with air-raid sirens reported in both Gulf states. Bahrain and Kuwait Push Back: Bahrain condemned the attacks as “blatant aggression” and urged Iran to stop, while Kuwait reopened airspace after a precautionary closure and said its air defences intercepted hostile threats. Lebanon Front: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi told Lebanese President Joseph Aoun Lebanon is not a “bargaining chip,” as Israel continued strikes in southern Lebanon that killed Lebanese soldiers, including an officer, days after a ceasefire deal. West Bank Violence: Health officials say an Israeli shooting killed a seven-month-old Palestinian baby near Hebron, with parents also wounded. Gaza Ceasefire Talks: A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials on implementing the first phase and setting mechanisms for the second phase. EU Sanctions on Settlers: EU measures against Israeli settler groups drew a defiant response from those targeted, who called the penalties a “badge of honour.” World Cup Visas Amid Tensions: The US granted visas to Iran’s World Cup players, but reports say some administrative staff were still waiting. Saudi-Malaysia Cultural Deal: Saudi Arabia and Malaysian translators signed an MoU to boost cooperation in translation and publishing at the Kuala Lumpur International Book Fair.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks: Trump says Washington is nearing a uranium-related arrangement with Iran, while Tehran’s hardliners insist any deal hinges on unfreezing $24bn in frozen assets. Maritime Tensions: Iran’s navy claimed warning shots at US destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, but CENTCOM denied it, saying such actions would violate the ceasefire. Lebanon Front: Israel struck multiple areas in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire efforts, killing at least 10 and prompting fresh evacuation warnings; Lebanon’s leaders accuse Iran of using the country as a “bargaining chip.” Gaza Ceasefire Reality: Israeli attacks continued across Gaza, with reports of deaths and injuries and growing fear that the ceasefire is only on paper. West Bank Violence: A Palestinian infant was killed and parents wounded after Israeli forces fired on a family car near Hebron. World Cup Diplomacy: Iran’s squad received US visas for the 2026 tournament, clearing travel plans just days before kickoff. Sanctions Pressure: The US imposed new sanctions on an Iran-linked LPG smuggling and shadow banking network using UAE/China front firms. Humanitarian Strain: The UN more than doubled its Lebanon aid appeal to nearly $640m over six months.

Lebanon Humanitarian Crisis: The UN more than doubled its Lebanon aid appeal to nearly $640 million over six months as Israel’s war with Hezbollah drives repeated displacement and strains services. Israel-Hezbollah Escalation: Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered ceasefire as Israel warned it would strike and evacuate areas north of the Litani; strikes in Tyre killed at least seven despite the deal. Ceasefire Politics: Hezbollah called the agreement a “farce,” demanding full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel said it would keep operating in Lebanon. Iran Nuclear Oversight: The IAEA said it can’t inspect key Iranian sites or confirm uranium stockpile details due to war disruptions, with safeguards responsibilities “indispensable and urgent.” US-Iran War Powers: The US House approved a resolution to halt the Iran war, signaling growing congressional pushback as talks stall. Diplomacy Signals: Trump said he’d be “honored” to meet Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, if a deal is reached, while insisting Iran must be barred from nuclear weapons. Gulf Energy & Security: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed with Oman under international law, as attacks and shipping disruptions keep pressure on regional energy routes. Domestic Pressure in Israel: A poll showed Netanyahu’s support slipping in northern Israel amid Hezbollah rocket fire and anger over the Lebanon war.