AGP Executive Report

Middle East Crisis & Markets: Trump said the Iran ceasefire is “over” as the U.S. launched dozens of strikes after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil up and rattling European stocks and gold. NATO Summit, Türkiye: Erdoğan told NATO leaders Türkiye aims to hit the alliance’s 5% defense-spending target early, citing faster capability goals and air/missile defense funding. Lebanon-Israel Framework: A new U.S.-brokered Lebanon-Israel framework is framed as a phased plan for Lebanon to extend state authority and Israel to redeploy, but with an asymmetry that leaves execution largely on the Lebanese Armed Forces. Gaza Governance: Hamas moves to dissolve Gaza’s government and push for technocrats, while Israel warns the group still seeks control. Regional Business & Finance: Housing Bank in Jordan issued the country’s first Blue Bond (USD 100m) to fund water projects; HSBC Qatar partnered with Noqoody to streamline corporate card payments. Energy & Industry: Kuwait’s AEP plans an equity raise to expand solar across Mena; Iraq’s anti-corruption push faces scepticism despite raids. Travel & Trade: Dubai Chambers launched a platform bundling services for firms; Gulftainer unveiled a $2bn logistics strategy to build an integrated trade ecosystem.

Middle East Crisis Escalation: The US launched new strikes on Iran after three merchant ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, warning Tehran the attacks violate the ceasefire; Washington also revoked a license allowing Iranian oil sales, raising pressure on talks to reopen the chokepoint. Funeral Politics in Iran: Crowds gathered for the week of mourning after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, with his body arriving in Iraq ahead of processions—an event that underscores Tehran’s hardline messaging. Shipping Risk to Global Energy: Tankers and LNG traffic faced renewed danger as authorities raised threat levels, pushing oil prices up and adding uncertainty for energy flows through the region. NATO and Regional Security: As Trump met Erdoğan in Ankara, the F-35 dispute resurfaced, with Congress warning Turkey’s S-400 ties keep the ban in place. Local Governance & Mobility (Dubai): Dubai unveiled transport steps—cycle links, bridges, and rail expansion—to cut congestion and improve air quality. Jordan-UK Trade: Jordan and the UK agreed measures to deepen economic cooperation, highlighting a sharp jump in Jordan’s exports to the UK.

NATO Summit in Ankara: President Donald Trump arrived for the NATO gathering as the alliance unveiled billions in arms deals to prove European firepower, while Washington signaled further reductions to its NATO force contributions. Strait of Hormuz Shock: Oil and gas prices jumped after a suspected Iranian attack hit a tanker in the Strait, raising fears for supply and for fragile US-Iran talks. Syria Security Fallout: Explosions in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit injured 18 people, with authorities saying devices were planted near his hotel and that the visit continued. Gaza Governance Shift: Hamas moved to dissolve Gaza’s government as part of a broader peace-plan process, setting up a new political phase. EU Pressure on Israel: Ireland’s Micheál Martin urged the EU to do more against an “increasingly extreme” Israeli government, citing worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza and violence in the West Bank. Gulf Energy & Business: ADNOC Distribution agreed to buy Shell’s South African fuel-station business in a $1bn deal, while Qatar Museums secured carbon neutrality certification for major heritage sites. AI & Data in the Gulf: UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading adoption of data streaming platforms to power agentic AI in production.

Syria Diplomacy: French President Emmanuel Macron landed in Damascus for the first visit by a major Western leader since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, signaling a push for a “sovereign” Syria and focusing on reconstruction while warning Damascus to deliver justice and avoid destabilizing Lebanon. Gaza Governance: Hamas says it has dissolved its Gaza Strip ministries and is ready to hand over to a technocratic panel under a US-backed plan, while Israel dismissed it as a “stunt” unless Hamas disarms. World Cup Integrity Row: FIFA and Trump defended the lifting of Folarin Balogun’s suspension after a phone call, as UEFA and Belgium challenged the decision and questioned FIFA’s control. UAE Education Resilience: UAE pupils celebrated International Baccalaureate results despite Iran-war disruption, with exams cancelled and grades based on teacher assessments. Kuwait Inclusion Jobs: Zain’s GROW program graduated fresh graduates with disabilities via paid internships, partnering with local universities and training bodies. Regional Economy & Energy: Markets were mixed in Europe as oil eased slightly, while Middle East tensions continue to shape inflation and business confidence.

Iran Funeral Politics: Iran began and continued massive public mourning for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with rare appearances by three sons but no sign of successor Mojtaba, as authorities try to avoid a repeat of deadly crowd chaos from Khomeini’s 1989 funeral. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: As Britain and France signal possible freedom-of-navigation support, Iran warns against any military action in the Strait of Hormuz and pushes a new “service fee” framing for transit. Israel-India Diplomacy: Netanyahu pushed back on US Vice President JD Vance’s “only ally” line, citing India’s backing and expanding Israel’s ties in tech, cyber and defense. Saudi Tourism & Hospitality: Marriott signed to open The Westin Abha in Saudi Arabia’s Asir region in 2031, with 464 rooms and a wellness-led concept. Regional Business Expansion: AscentHR acquired Malaysia-based OS HRS to boost payroll and compliance services across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Aviation Links: Turkish Airlines will add flights on its Istanbul–Johannesburg and Istanbul–Cape Town routes from late October to meet seasonal demand. Water Infrastructure in Oman: Oman’s Nama Water Services awarded a major 15-year performance-based contract worth about RO 900m to cut water losses and run water and wastewater services for 2.3m people. Gaza Human Cost: Reporting from Gaza highlights stalled ceasefire progress and the scale of destruction facing residents as rebuilding costs climb.

Lebanon-Israel Escalation: Despite a ceasefire, Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon killed at least two people and wounded four in the past 24 hours, with overall deaths since March 2 reported in the thousands as rescue access remains hampered by damaged roads. Iran Funeral & Regional Tensions: Iran is holding a six-day mourning for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with millions attending ceremonies across Iran and Iraq; reports say only three of his sons appeared publicly and successor Mojtaba remains absent, while Hormuz traffic reportedly fell as Opec+ moves toward higher quotas. Energy & Markets: Opec+ approved further output increases and analysts link easing Middle East disruption to softer fuel pressures, while reinsurance pricing continues to fall as capital floods the market. Aviation & Travel: SalamAir launched Muscat–Medan direct flights, and Saudia won the APEX award for best cabin service in the Middle East. Geopolitics & Trade: A former Biden official warns Israel risks missing the IMEC corridor opportunity as port and border capacity constraints remain a bottleneck. Business & Policy: Turkey unveiled sweeping tax incentives to lure high-net-worth and corporate relocations, aiming to position the country as a regional stability and logistics hub.

Middle East Peace & Diplomacy: Egypt’s President Sisi said there can be no lasting peace without ending Israel’s occupation of Palestine, warning that stability and “popular normalization” won’t come without a just settlement. Gaza Ceasefire Fallout: Residents in Gaza say the World Cup-era hope is fading as the ceasefire remains unfulfilled and the Strip’s stadiums and shelters show the scale of destruction. Iran Funeral & Regional Tensions: Iran held day-two prayers for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with his son and successor Mojtaba absent from public view; chants of revenge underscored how the war with the US and Israel still shapes politics. Hormuz & Energy Security: India lifted emergency LNG supply curbs after Strait of Hormuz disruptions eased with a ceasefire, while commentary warned Iran’s control of transit could still be a powerful political lever. Regional Politics: Syria’s Kurds are described as moving from marginalization toward a defining political force as the country’s post-Assad era reshapes power. Business & Connectivity: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector grew at a four-month high, and Air Arabia launched Sharjah–London Gatwick flights, boosting UAE–UK travel links. Humanitarian Crisis: WFP said hunger in northern Nigeria has worsened to its worst in nearly a decade as insecurity blocks aid and access to farmland.

US-Iran Diplomacy Under Strain: Egypt urged Washington and Tehran to keep momentum on their US-Iran memorandum as nuclear talks remain paused, warning that diplomacy is key to regional stability. Regional Pressure on Peace Talks: Turkey’s Erdogan said Israel must not “dynamite” the US-Iran deal, arguing Middle East peace needs regional backing, while also pushing deeper energy and trade cooperation with Pakistan. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran began six days of state funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with millions expected in Tehran and across cities, as crowds chanted “Death to America” and “Revenge,” and Iran’s leadership signaled continuity under a new, hard-line generation. Regional Humanitarian Coordination: Bahrain’s Red Crescent joined a Jordan-hosted workshop with 12 national societies to strengthen immunization support led by ministries of health across MENA. Energy and Cost-of-Living Fallout: With Strait of Hormuz tensions still shaping markets, analysts warned households could face elevated energy bills in the UK through 2027, as European economies brace for higher costs. Trade and Growth Signals: Thailand set a path to lift growth potential to 3.0% by 2030, citing investment, trade, and easing the cost of living, while Ethiopia reported a record $3bn from coffee exports despite Middle East-linked shipping disruptions.

Iran Funeral & Regional Tensions: Iran began six days of state funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with huge crowds expected and attention on whether his successor son Mojtaba appears, as officials project unity amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing US–Iran conflict. NATO Ankara Summit: Ahead of NATO’s Ankara summit on July 7–8, Turkey’s role is highlighted as alliance leaders focus on sustained Ukraine support, defense spending, and force posture changes. Strait of Hormuz Security: France and the UK are stepping up maritime security efforts around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran issues fresh directives to oil tankers amid continued geopolitical uncertainty. Oman Water Deal: Oman’s Nama Water Services won a major 15-year performance-based contract worth about RO 900 million to run water and wastewater services and cut unaccounted-for losses for millions in Muscat and Sharqiyah. Sharjah Tourism Partnership: Shurooq signed with Minor Hotels to manage the Sharjah Collection, adding operational oversight for seven nature and heritage retreats. UAE Health & Genomics Push: Abu Dhabi’s Department of Health expanded intelligent life sciences partnerships in the US, boosting genomics, AI, advanced therapeutics, and precision medicine ties. Fuel Price Watch: In the Philippines, diesel may rise next week as Middle East outflows stay volatile; in Taiwan, CPC cut gasoline and diesel after crude eased, showing how regional shocks keep rippling into local pumps. Travel & Business Links: AJet launched a new Ankara–St. Petersburg route, while TUI updated UK holiday guidance as Middle East disruption eases. Markets & Energy Signals: Gold’s safe-haven appeal is shifting during the Iran war, and oil-price moves continue to shape inflation and investment decisions across the region.

US-Iran Talks Under Strain: The NYT reports US officials feared Israel could target Iran’s top negotiators, warning regional governments that Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf might be assassinated—raising stakes for the Doha talks. Lebanon Ceasefire Returns: IOM says over 640,000 displaced Lebanese have gone back home as clashes between Hezbollah and Israel ease after a June 21 ceasefire. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran’s Khamenei funeral week is set to draw millions, with Tehran warning the US and Israel against “miscalculation,” while regional delegations arrive. Gulf Security Fallout: The US Navy says Bahrain families won’t return before the fall school semester due to ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Pakistan Growth Watch: SBP projects FY26 GDP growth around 3.75–4.75% despite the Middle East crisis, with remittances expected above $41.5bn. Trade Pressure: Pakistan’s commerce ministry warns exports keep suffering when incentives favor domestic industries; it cites Strait of Hormuz disruptions and tougher rice competition. Energy Bills: Caribbean Utilities confirms electricity bill changes tied to fuel and regulatory charges. Startup & Tech: Sanabil Accelerator’s 11th cohort wraps with eight MENA startups; Unique Group appoints a new CEO.

US-Iran Tensions and Hormuz Fallout: The US and Iran reportedly agreed to halt fresh tit-for-tat strikes and held indirect talks in Doha, but the Strait of Hormuz disruption has already hit jobs and livelihoods across the region and beyond, with the ILO warning of falling wages, output and employment. Iran Leadership Mourning: Iran has begun a week-long public mourning for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Tehran expecting massive turnout and tight security as the country navigates a sensitive leadership transition. Oil Markets Watch: Brent has slid sharply as Hormuz risks ease, but analysts warn the market is still pricing expectations faster than physical recovery, keeping volatility on the table. UK Services Squeeze: Britain’s services sector contracted again in June, with firms citing Middle East conflict uncertainty and cost pressures, even as some hospitality demand got a World Cup lift. Gulf Business and Payments: Oman Arab Bank marked a decade of payments modernization with BPC, including Visa tokenization for more secure digital transactions. Regional Diplomacy: Kenya’s PM cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi begins talks in Saudi Arabia focused on labour protections for Kenyan workers and broader economic cooperation. Tech and Media: Google Play launched a $1m indie games fund for African developers, while UAE media growth is framed as a soft-power engine.

Fuel Relief & Energy Policy: Namibia cut July fuel prices after a N$1.3bn relief bill and said it will overhaul fuel procurement to reduce import premiums. Energy Efficiency Push: Dozens of governments backed the IEA call to make energy efficiency a cornerstone of policy, citing Middle East-driven volatility and the need to protect households and SMEs. Water Security in Oman: Nama Water Services awarded a 15-year RO878mn contract to a SUEZ-led consortium to run water and wastewater systems for 2.3mn people, with performance-linked targets. MENA Energy Deal: Genel Energy agreed to buy Capricorn Energy for $360m, gaining Egypt exposure while diversifying beyond Kurdistan risks. Kurdistan-Iraq Security: Reports say Iran’s IRGC ambushed Kurdish fighters in western Iran, killing six, as clashes spread. Gaza/Lebanon Ceasefire Reality: Coverage highlights continued strikes and the gap between postwar plans “on paper” and what can be implemented inside Gaza. Business & Industry: Stellantis’ South Africa plant update and AirTrunk’s Malaysia JHB3/JHB4 data centre expansion point to ongoing investment in manufacturing and AI infrastructure. Qatar Sports Tech: Doha hosts eFIBA World Finals Qatar Season 4 at Mall of Qatar, featuring teams including Qatar, Lebanon and Algeria ahead of the 2027 FIBA World Cup.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran warned oil tankers to use approved routes or face “forceful response,” after US-Iran talks in Qatar and renewed focus on navigation protocols. Israel-Lebanon Posture: Netanyahu reiterated Israel won’t leave southern Lebanon until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, as US officials weigh new basing options to reduce exposure to Iranian drones and missiles. Syrian-Hezbollah Opening: Syria’s foreign minister said Damascus is open to meeting Hezbollah “if interests require it,” signaling careful alliance management after the new government’s rise. Qatar Finance Push: QFC-backed Franklin Templeton is setting up a Qatar entity, while Dukhan Bank won a MENA banking award for its business card offering. UAE Business & Tech: Presight AI signed a Kazakhstan smart-road deal, and Abu Dhabi’s real estate market stayed strong with higher transaction volumes. Iraq Ports: Iraq plans to invite bids for remaining Faw port piers, aiming to complete phases before full commissioning. Healthcare Infrastructure: Abu Dhabi Biobank and Bascom Palmer Eye Institute will establish the Middle East’s first eye bank in Abu Dhabi. Philippines Energy Security: Manila is considering a new government oil reserve storage, targeting completion in 2027-2028.

WTA Tennis: The WTA Finals are moving from Riyadh to Indian Wells, ending the Saudi hosting deal early after criticism over human-rights records. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraqi forces carried out high-profile Green Zone raids, detaining lawmakers and senior officials in cases tied to suspected corruption networks. US-Iran Talks: Qatar says U.S.-Iran discussions will stay at technical level for now, with senior meetings uncertain as the interim framework aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East Diplomacy: The U.S. is taking a more traditional diplomatic approach on Lebanon and Israel, even as the “beginning of the beginning” signals a long road ahead. Energy & Trade: Oil sentiment remains tied to Hormuz and the ceasefire track, while Gulf sovereign wealth funds posted a record first-half investment pace despite Iran-war volatility. UK-Israel Pressure: The UK is weighing coordinated restrictions on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements, escalating pressure amid settlement expansion debate. Business & Finance: UBS warns global wealth growth may shift toward a “diamond” pattern that could limit opportunities for wealth managers, while Nigeria’s private sector growth cooled in June as costs rose.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Oil prices ticked up after Iran said it would not meet Trump envoys directly in Qatar, keeping pressure on a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and raising uncertainty for shipping through the chokepoint. Regional Security: Kuwait’s Cabinet condemned renewed Iranian military aggressions and ordered peak readiness, while also freezing unapproved state consulting contracts. Iraq’s Investment Push: Iraq plans an Energy and Development Fund backed by the Central Bank, inviting Gulf partners and Western investors to finance strategic infrastructure and energy projects. Banking & Compliance: Qatar-based Region Trade Bank named a new board of international finance-integrity and sanctions experts as Iraq’s banking sector deepens regional links. Jordan Jobs Plan: The World Bank approved a $700m loan for Jordan to turn macro stability into private investment, jobs, and a green-and-digital transition. Saudi Power Storage: Saudi Arabia prequalified 27 firms for six utility-scale battery storage projects totaling 3,000MW. Dubai Luxury Real Estate: Binghatti said a Bugatti Residences penthouse deal reached AED200m, highlighting continued demand for ultra-luxury homes in Business Bay. Food Prices Watch: Philippines leaders are still weighing whether to extend a P50/kg imported rice price cap as the wet-season harvest approaches. Manufacturing Pulse: A Philippines PMI survey showed modest June expansion, but confidence fell amid lingering cost pressures.

Telecom Deal: Zain wins a 25-year Syria mobile license after a $747m bid, taking 75% of a new operating entity and aiming for a Q1 2027 launch while transitioning services for 6.3m customers. Maritime & Energy Shock: The Strait of Hormuz reopens after 100+ days of disruption, but UNCTAD warns the damage to prices and supply chains will linger for vulnerable economies. Security Review: Israel expands its review of Hezbollah’s cross-border threat, now focusing on a tunnel network that officials say includes command centers, weapons depots, drones and ammunition—pushing plans to reduce reliance on US arms. Regional Diplomacy: China’s envoy to Kuwait reiterates deeper strategic partnership and says Beijing is backing peace and de-escalation amid Middle East tensions. Economy & Trade: Central banks remain bullish on gold as a strategic asset, with OMFIF reporting growing official demand even as prices swing. Business & Markets: Global air cargo demand rose in May, while markets track easing Middle East pressure alongside ongoing macro worries.